Browsing by Author "Scholten, Marc"
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- Anomalies to Markowitz’s hypothesis and a prospect-theoretical interpretationPublication . Scholten, Marc; Read, DanielMarkowitz hypothesized a fourfold pattern of risk preferences, with risk aversion for large gains and small losses, but risk seeking for small gains and large losses. We test his hypothesis, and obtain two major results. One is the dispersion effect: A majority exhibits risk seeking and risk aversion for small and large gains, but disperses into five preference groups for small and large losses. There are the „Markowitzians‟ (risk aversion and risk seeking), the „non-Markowitzians‟ (risk seeking and risk aversion), the „Cautious‟ (global risk aversion), the „Audacious‟ (global risk seeking), and the „Wavering‟ (who exhibit no definite preference pattern). The other result is the migration effect: The composition of the preference groups changes across risk levels. More specifically, when going from high to moderate risk levels, the shares of the Markowitzians and the Cautious fall while the shares of the Audacious and the non-Markowitzians rise. We show that, if prospect theory accommodates the dispersion effect by allowing for heterogeneity in the elasticity of the value function and the elevation of the probability-weighing function, it correctly predicts the migration effect.
- Beyond discounting : The tradeoff model of intertemporal choicePublication . Scholten, Marc; Read, DanielResearch on intertemporal judgments and choices between a smaller-sooner and a larger-later outcome has revealed many anomalies to the discounted-utility model. Attempts to account for these anomalies within the discounting paradigm have resulted in convoluted and psychologically opaque models. We therefore develop a new model of intertemporal choice, the tradeoff model, in which choice results from a tradeoff between the perceived time difference (interval) and the perceived outcome difference (compensation). This model is both more parsimonious and more intuitive than any rival discounting model of comparable scope. Moreover, it accurately describes archival data as well as data from a new experiment.
- Conflict-mediated choicePublication . Scholten, MarcResearch on behavioral decision making has demonstrated that preferences are affected by the set of options under consideration. Formal models offer an account of such choice-set effects on the basis of principles according to which the similarity of the options in the choice set has an effect on choice probabilities. Behavioral formulations are Tversky’s (1972) elimination- by-aspects (EBA) model, based on the principle of sequential elimination, and Tversky and Simonson’s (1993) componential context (CC) model, based on the principle of pairwise comparisons subject to loss aversion. While these principles are assumed to determine choice behavior, the conflict induced by the set of options under consideration is assumed to be merely a source of indeterminacy in choice behavior. This paper challenges past models by offering a behavioral account of choice-set effects according to which the effect of similarity on choice probabilities is mediated by conflict. A conflict-mediated choice (CMC) model is developed, its testable implications are derived, and its predictions are contrasted with those of the EBA model and the CC model. Specifically, it is described how, according to each of the three models, choice probabilities are affected by the similarity of the options in the choice set and how choice-set effects are moderated by the relative weight of the attributes along which the options are positioned. In two experimental studies, the CMC model offers an accurate account of observed choice-set effects and outperforms the alternative models.
- Cultura nacional e orientação empreendedora: Um estudo comparativo entre Brasil e PortugalPublication . Silva, Marco Antonio Oliveira Monteiro da; Correia, Manuela Faia; Scholten, Marc; Gomes, Luiz Flavio Autran MonteiroEste artigo descreve um estudo realizado com o propósito de comparar empreendedoresproprietários de empresas em incubadoras no Brasil e em Portugal. A comparação entre estes dois países justificou-se pelo passado histórico comum, notadamente pela influência portuguesa na formaçã cultural brasileira, espelhada no estudo transcultural de Hofstede (1980). O objetivo deste estudo é comparar a orientação empreendedora desses empreendedores-proprietários de ambos os países. A orientação empreendedora revelou-se mais elevada no Brasil do que em Portugal, destacando-se as dimensões de propensão para o risco e a acompetitividade agressiva. Os empreendedores brasileiros, curiosamente, revelam uma maior rejeição a incertezas futuras mas concomitantemente, demonstram ter uma maior propensão para assumir riscos e se expor a incertezas. O presente estudo levanta questões sobre diferentes drives para empreender, e ao despertar a curiosidade sobre o assunto deixa como sugestões futuras de pesquisas o aprofundamento da análise do empreendedorismo por oportunidade e por necessidade nos dois países.
- Discounting by intervals: A generalized model of intertemporal choicePublication . Scholten, Marc; Read, DanielAccording to most models of intertemporal choice, an agent’s discount rate is a function of how far the outcomes are removed from the present, and nothing else. This view has been challenged by recent studies, which show that discount rates tend to be higher the closer the outcomes are to one another (subadditive discounting) and that this can give rise to intransitive intertemporal choice. We develop and test a generalized model of intertemporal choice, the Discounting By Intervals (DBI) model, according to which the discount rate is a function of both how far outcomes are removed from the present and how far the outcomes are removed from one another. The model addresses past challenges to other models, most of which it includes as special cases, as well as the new challenges presented in this paper: Our studies show that when the interval between outcomes is very short, discount rate tends to increase with interval length (superadditive discounting). In the discussion we place our model and evidence in a broader theoretical context.
- DRIFT: An analysis of outcome framing in intertemporal choicePublication . Read, Daniel; Frederick, Shane; Scholten, MarcPeople prefer to receive good outcomes immediately rather than wait, and they must be compensated for waiting. But what influences their decision about how much compensation is required for a given wait? To give a partial answer to this question, we develop the DRIFT model, a heuristic description of how framing influences intertemporal choice. We describe 4 experiments showing the implications of this model. In the experiments, we vary how the difference between a smaller sooner outcome and a larger later outcome is framed—either as total interest earned, as an interest rate, or as total amount earned (the conventional frame in studies of intertemporal choice)—and whether the larger later outcome is described as resulting from the investment of the smaller sooner one. These alternate frames have several effects. First, the investment language increases patience. Second, the explicit provision of the (otherwise implicit) experimental interest rate sharply reduces the magnitude effect. Correspondingly, we find that interest frames increase patience when the rewards are small, but they decrease patience when they are large. Third, the interest-rate frame induces somewhat greater discounting for longer time periods and, thus, reverses the common finding of “hyperbolic” discounting. Thus, many of the “stylized facts” implied by studies involving choices between a smaller sooner and a larger later amount are eliminated or reverse under alternate outcome frames.
- As duas caras do Janus: O conflito como fonte de (im)previsibilidade na tomada de decisãoPublication . Carrilho, Joana Paixão; Scholten, Marc; Rosa, Inês Ferreira de Oliveira ValentePerante uma situação de escolha entre opções que implicam uma troca entre dois ou mais atributos, a escolha de uma delas significa abdicar das vantagens da outra opção, o que leva a conflito. Modelos formais de tomada de decisão consideram o conflito apenas como uma fonte de imprevisibilidade na escolha (o decisor sente-se incerto quanto à decisão a tomar). No entanto, um modelo recente, o modelo da Escolha Mediada pelo Conflito (EMC), considera o conflito também um factor explicativo na tomada de decisão (ao sentir conflito, o decisor recorre a pistas na situação da escolha para fornecerem argumentos a favor de uma decisão). Neste artigo, apresentamos uma revisão do modelo EMC e dos modelos que o antecederam, comparando as previsões dos diversos modelos.
- Efeitos contextuais na escolha intertemporal : Evidência contra modelos de descontoPublication . Pimentel, Duarte Nuno Gonçalves; Gonçalves, Gui; Scholten, Marc; Carvalho, Pedro Le Mattre de; Correia, Manuela FaiaA escolha intertemporal tem estreita ligação com fenómenos que estão na ordem do dia, tais como comportamentos de poupança, consumo e investimento. Este estudo constituir-se-á como um avanço na compreensão da escolha intertemporal, na medida em que contempla contextos de escolha triádica (três opções) e não apenas de escolha diádica (duas opções), à qual se limitam a maior parte de estudos empíricos. Pela primeira vez, este estudo vem tentar compreender como a preferência entre opções é influenciada por outras opções no contexto de escolha. Os actuais modelos de escolha intertemporal, chamados modelos de desconto, não contemplam tais influências, uma vez que cada opção é avaliada independentemente das outras. Focamo-nos em efeitos de polarização, induzidos pela introdução de uma terceira opção ao leque de escolha e o enquadramento da terceira opção como a opção default. Os resultados confirmaram estes efeitos. Discutimos ainda como os modelos de desconto devem ser substituídos por outros modelos, em que as pessoas fazem comparações directas entre as opções. Os resultados também confirmaram fenómenos que até hoje têm sido acomodados pelos modelos de desconto: Os efeitos de diferimento, de magnitude e de sinal.
- Entrepreneurial orientation in family firms: Looking at a european outermost regionPublication . Pimentel, Duarte Nuno Gonçalves; Couto, João Pedro; Scholten, MarcThis study addresses a current debate in the family business literature involving the extent to which the family business context hinders or promotes entrepreneurial behavior. The empirical evidence is provided by 155 small-sized firms, 82 family-controlled and 73 nonfamily-controlled, operating in an outermost region, the Autonomous Region of the Azores. This study analyzes the differences between family and nonfamily firms in regard to entrepreneurial orientation and how it is influenced by family participation. Results show that there are differences in entrepreneurship orientation and in two of its three dimensions, while revealing that family participation is negatively associated with entrepreneurial orientation and its three dimensions.
- Escolha intertemporal : Enquadramento, sinal e diferimento das suas consequênciasPublication . Carvalho, Pedro Le Mattre de; Scholten, Marc; Pimentel, Duarte Nuno Gonçalves; Gonçalves, Gui; Correia, Manuela FaiaDe acordo com o modelo normativo da escolha intertemporal, o Modelo de Utilidade Descontada (Samuelson, 1937), a utilidade de uma consequência futura é descontada exponencialmente consoante o diferimento. Há âmpla evidência de que as pessoas não cumprem este pressuposto. Neste estudo, 280 sujeitos realizaram uma tarefa de emparelhamento (ou matching) de forma a verificar a presença de uma nova anomalia ao desconto exponencial, bem como quatro anomalias mais conhecidas na literatura: O efeito de diferimento, o efeito de magnitude, o efeito de sinal e a assimetria adiamento- -adiantamento. A nova anomalia é uma interacção entre o enquadramento, o sinal, e o diferimento das consequências: Em ganhos, o efeito de diferimento é mais pronunciado num enquadramento de adiamento do que num enquadramento de adiantamento; em perdas, o inverso acontece. Todas as anomalias foram verificadas. Avançamos uma explicação do efeito interactivo em termos de sensibilidade decrescente a diferimentos.
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