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Publication
Escolha intertemporal : Enquadramento, sinal e diferimento das suas consequências
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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
De acordo com o modelo normativo da escolha intertemporal, o Modelo de Utilidade Descontada
(Samuelson, 1937), a utilidade de uma consequência futura é descontada exponencialmente consoante
o diferimento. Há âmpla evidência de que as pessoas não cumprem este pressuposto. Neste estudo, 280
sujeitos realizaram uma tarefa de emparelhamento (ou matching) de forma a verificar a presença de
uma nova anomalia ao desconto exponencial, bem como quatro anomalias mais conhecidas na
literatura: O efeito de diferimento, o efeito de magnitude, o efeito de sinal e a assimetria adiamento-
-adiantamento. A nova anomalia é uma interacção entre o enquadramento, o sinal, e o diferimento das
consequências: Em ganhos, o efeito de diferimento é mais pronunciado num enquadramento de
adiamento do que num enquadramento de adiantamento; em perdas, o inverso acontece. Todas as
anomalias foram verificadas. Avançamos uma explicação do efeito interactivo em termos de
sensibilidade decrescente a diferimentos.
ABSTRACT: According to the normative model of intertemporal choice, the Discounted Utility Model (Samuelson, 1937), the utility of a future outcome is discounted exponentially as a function of its delay. There is ample evidence that people do not comply with this proposition. In this study, 280 subjects performed a matching task in order to verify a new anomaly to exponential discounting, as well as four well known anomalies in the literature: The delay effect, the magnitude effect, the sign effect, and the delayspeedup asymmetry. The new anomaly is an interaction between the framing, sign, and delay to the outcomes: In gains, the delay effect is more pronounced in the delay frame than in the speedup frame; in losses, the reverse occurs. All anomalies were verified. We advance an explanation of the interaction effect in terms of diminishing sensitivity to delays.
ABSTRACT: According to the normative model of intertemporal choice, the Discounted Utility Model (Samuelson, 1937), the utility of a future outcome is discounted exponentially as a function of its delay. There is ample evidence that people do not comply with this proposition. In this study, 280 subjects performed a matching task in order to verify a new anomaly to exponential discounting, as well as four well known anomalies in the literature: The delay effect, the magnitude effect, the sign effect, and the delayspeedup asymmetry. The new anomaly is an interaction between the framing, sign, and delay to the outcomes: In gains, the delay effect is more pronounced in the delay frame than in the speedup frame; in losses, the reverse occurs. All anomalies were verified. We advance an explanation of the interaction effect in terms of diminishing sensitivity to delays.
Description
Keywords
Adiamento-adiantamento Diferimento Escolha intertemporal Interacção Magnitude Sinal Delay Delay-speedup Interaction Intertemporal choice Sign
Citation
Análise Psicológica, 32, 91-1030, 251-267
Publisher
Instituto Superior de Psicologia Aplicada