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Advisor(s)
Abstract(s)
Climate change is restructuring biodiversity on multiple scales and there is a pressing
need to understand the downstream ecological and genomic consequences of this
change. Recent advancements in the field of eco-evolutionary
genomics have sought
to include evolutionary processes in forecasting species' responses to climate change
(e.g., genomic offset), but to date, much of this work has focused on terrestrial species.
Coastal and offshore species, and the fisheries they support, may be even more
vulnerable to climate change than their terrestrial counterparts, warranting a critical
appraisal of these approaches in marine systems. First, we synthesize knowledge
about the genomic basis of adaptation in marine species, and then we discuss the few
examples where genomic forecasting has been applied in marine systems. Next, we
identify the key challenges in validating genomic offset estimates in marine species,
and we advocate for the inclusion of historical sampling data and hindcasting in the
validation phase. Lastly, we describe a workflow to guide marine managers in incorporating
these predictions into the decision-making
process
Description
Keywords
Adaptation Climate change Genomic offset Marine species Validation
Citation
Layton, K. K. S., Brieuc, M. S. O., Castilho, R., Diaz-Arce, N., Estévez-Barcia, D., Fonseca, V. G., Fuentes-Pardo, A. P., Jeffery, N. W., Jiménez-Mena, B., Junge, C., Kaufmann, J., Leinonen, T., Maes, S. M., McGinnity, P., Reed, T. E., Reisser, C. M. O., Silva, G., Vasemägi, A., & Bradbury, I. R. (2024). Predicting the future of our oceans—Evaluating genomic forecasting approaches in marine species. Global Change Biology, 30(3). https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.17236
Publisher
Wiley-Blackwell Publishing Ltd