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Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change

2022Journal article Restricted access
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dc.contributor.authorLima, André R.A.
dc.contributor.authorBaltazar-Soares, Miguel
dc.contributor.authorGarrido, Susana
dc.contributor.authorRiveiro, I. (Isabel)
dc.contributor.authorCarrera, Pablo
dc.contributor.authorPiecho-Santos, A. Miguel
dc.contributor.authorPeck, Myron
dc.contributor.authorSilva, Gonçalo
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-03T16:12:53Z
dc.date.available2021-12-03T16:12:53Z
dc.date.issued2022
dc.description.abstractClimate change often leads to shifts in the distribution of small pelagic fish, likely by changing the matchmismatch dynamics between these sensitive species within their environmental optima. Using present-day habitat suitability, we projected how different scenarios of climate change (IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5) may alter the large scale distribution of European sardine Sardina pilchardus (a model species) by 2050 and 2100. We evaluated the variability of species-specific environmental optima allowing a comparison between present-day and future scenarios. Regardless of the scenario, sea surface temperature and salinity and the interaction between current velocity and distance to the nearest coast were the main descriptors responsible for the main effects on sardine's distribution. Present-day and future potential “hotspots” for sardine were neritic zones (<250 km) withwater currents <0.4ms−1, where SST was between 10 and 22 °C and SSS>20 (PSU), on average.Most variability in projected shifts among climatic scenarioswas in habitats with moderate to low suitability. By the end of this century, habitat suitability was projected to increase in the Canary Islands, Iberian Peninsula, central North Sea, northern Mediterranean, and eastern Black Sea and to decrease in the Atlantic African coast, southwest Mediterranean, English Channel, northern North Sea and Western U.K. A gradual poleward-eastward shift in sardine distribution was also projected among scenarios. This shift was most pronounced in 2100 under RCP 8.5. In that scenario, sardines had a 9.6% range expansion which included waters along the entire coast of Norway up and into the White Sea. As habitat suitability is mediated by the synergic effects of climate variability and change on species fitness, it is critical to apply models with robust underlying species-habitat data that integrate knowledge on the full range of processes shaping species productivity and distribution.pt_PT
dc.description.versioninfo:eu-repo/semantics/acceptedVersionpt_PT
dc.identifier.citationLima, A. R. A., Baltazar-Soares, M., Garrido, S., Riveiro, I., Carrera, P., Piecho-Santos, A. M., Peck, M. A., & Silva, G. (2022). Forecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate change. Science of the Total Environment, 804. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150167pt_PT
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.150167pt_PT
dc.identifier.issn00489697
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/10400.12/8380
dc.language.isoengpt_PT
dc.peerreviewedyespt_PT
dc.publisherElsevierpt_PT
dc.relationImpact of climate chnage on the ecology and dynamics of small pelagic fish
dc.relationAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
dc.rights.urihttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/pt_PT
dc.subjectOcean warmingpt_PT
dc.subjectGlobal changespt_PT
dc.subjectSpecies distribution modelspt_PT
dc.subjectSardina pilcharduspt_PT
dc.subjectDistribution range shiftspt_PT
dc.subjectEcological nichept_PT
dc.titleForecasting shifts in habitat suitability across the distribution range of a temperate small pelagic fish under different scenarios of climate changept_PT
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
oaire.awardTitleImpact of climate chnage on the ecology and dynamics of small pelagic fish
oaire.awardTitleAlgarve Centre for Marine Sciences
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/9471 - RIDTI/PTDC%2FBIA-BMA%2F32209%2F2017/PT
oaire.awardURIinfo:eu-repo/grantAgreement/FCT/6817 - DCRRNI ID/UIDB%2F04326%2F2020/PT
oaire.citation.conferencePlaceNetherlandspt_PT
oaire.citation.endPage14pt_PT
oaire.citation.startPage1pt_PT
oaire.citation.titleScience of The Total Environmentpt_PT
oaire.citation.volume804pt_PT
oaire.fundingStream9471 - RIDTI
oaire.fundingStream6817 - DCRRNI ID
person.familyNameAraújo Lima
person.familyNameBaltazar-Soares
person.familyNameRiveiro
person.familyNameSantos
person.familyNamePeck
person.givenNameAndré Ricardo
person.givenNameMiguel
person.givenNameI. (Isabel)
person.givenNameA. Miguel P.
person.givenNameMyron
person.identifier283148
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person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-9698-8302
person.identifier.orcid0000-0002-8905-072X
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-9401-3504
person.identifier.orcid0000-0001-7423-1854
person.identifier.ridC-4931-2019
person.identifier.ridG-6030-2011
person.identifier.ridH-6164-2011
person.identifier.scopus-author-id6602623004
person.identifier.scopus-author-id25926746100
person.identifier.scopus-author-id7102119738
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.identifierhttp://doi.org/10.13039/501100001871
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
project.funder.nameFundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia
rcaap.rightsrestrictedAccesspt_PT
rcaap.typearticlept_PT
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