Motivated reasoning in the prediction of sports outcomes and the belief in the “hot hand”

Braga, João Pedro Niza; Mata, André; Ferreira, Mário Augusto Boto; Sherman, Steven J.

http://hdl.handle.net/10400.12/5036

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Authors

Braga, João Pedro Niza

Mata, André

Ferreira, Mário Augusto Boto

Sherman, Steven J.

Abstract(s)

The present paper explores the role of motivation to observe a certain outcome in people's predictions, causal attributions, and beliefs about a streak of binary outcomes (basketball scoring shots). In two studies we found that positive streaks (points scored by the participants' favourite team) lead participants to predict the streak's continuation (belief in the hot hand), but negative streaks lead to predictions of its end (gambler's fallacy). More importantly, these wishful predictions are supported by strategic attributions and beliefs about how and why a streak might unfold. Results suggest that the effect of motivation on predictions is mediated by a serial path via causal attributions to the teams at play and belief in the hot hand.