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- Unraveling the sequences of risk factors underlying the development of criminal behaviorPublication . Basto-Pereira, Miguel; Farrington, David; Maciel, LauraThis work aims to investigate the role of sequences of risk factors from childhood to young adulthood in predicting subsequent criminal convictions. This study uses the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development (CSDD) dataset, a prospective longitudinal research study that followed 411 males from South London from the age of 8 to 61 years. Temporal sequences of risk factors at ages 8–10, 12–14, and 16–18 were analyzed as predictors of subsequent criminal convictions up to the age of 61. Risk factors related to poverty, parenting problems, and children’s risk-taking predisposition at ages 8–10 emerged as prevalent starting points for the most highly predictive developmental sequences leading to convictions. The risk of a criminal conviction significantly increased if these risk factors were followed by low IQ scores or association with delinquent friends at ages 12–14, and by school and professional problems or drug addiction during late adolescence (ages 16–18). At each developmental stage, specific risk factors intricately combine to form chains of risk during development, subsequently predicting criminal convictions. A trajectory-of-risk-need-responsivity approach that identifies and breaks chains of risk factors that generate and enhance favorable conditions for criminal convictions is discussed.
- Advancing knowledge about lifelong crime sequencesPublication . Basto-Pereira, Miguel; Farrington, DavidThis article aims to describe the most prevalent, lifelong sequences of crime, to identify developmental patterns of crime, and to evaluate the impact of childhood characteristics on each pathway. Convictions up to age 56 in the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development are analyzed. The prevalence of the most frequent sequences of convictions is presented. Optimal matching dissimilarity and partitioning around medoids analyses are conducted to identify types of sequences. The most common sequences of convictions involve types of stealing. Four different types of sequences are identified and are predicted using childhood characteristics. It is concluded that different types of childhood vulnerabilities predict different types of conviction sequences.