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- Targeted sequencing of mitochondrial genes reveals signatures of molecular adaptation in a nearly panmictic small pelagic fish speciesPublication . Baltazar-Soares, Miguel; Lima, André R.A.; Silva, GonçaloOngoing climatic changes, with predictable impacts on marine environmental conditions, are expected to trigger organismal responses. Recent evidence shows that, in some marine species, variation in mitochondrial genes involved in the aerobic conversion of oxygen into ATP at the cellular level correlate with gradients of sea surface temperature and gradients of dissolved oxygen. Here, we investigated the adaptive potential of the European sardine Sardina pilchardus populations offshore the Iberian Peninsula. We performed a seascape genetics approach that consisted of the high throughput sequencing of mitochondria's ATP6, COI, CYTB and ND5 and five microsatellite loci on 96 individuals coupled with environmental information on sea surface temperature and dissolved oxygen across five sampling locations. Results show that, despite sardines forming a nearly panmictic population around Iberian Peninsula, haplotype frequency distribution can be explained by gradients of minimum sea surface temperature and dissolved oxygen. We further identified that the frequencies of the most common CYTB and ATP6 haplotypes negatively correlate with minimum sea surface temperature across the sampled area, suggestive of a signature of selection. With signatures of selection superimposed on highly connected populations, sardines may be able to follow environmental optima and shift their distribution northwards as a response to the increasing sea surface temperatures.
- Seasonal approach to forecast the suitability of spawning habitats of a temperate small pelagic fish under a high-emission climate change scenarioPublication . Lima, André R.A.; Garrido, Susana; Riveiro, I.; Rodrigues, Diana; Angélico, Maria M. P.; Gonçalves, Emanuel J.; Peck, Myron A.; Silva, GonçaloABSTRACT: Spawning habitats of cold-water, European small pelagic fishes have shifted poleward in the last three decades coincident with gradual ocean warming. We predicted present-day, season-specific habitat suitability for spawning by European sardine Sardina pichardus in the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean and Black Seas, and projected climate-driven changes in suitable areas from 2050-2099 under the IPCC – RCP 8.5 scenario. Sea surface temperature and distance to the coast had the greater influences in spawning habitats, reflecting the temperature- and coastal-dependent spawning of sardines. Chlorophyll-a was the third most important explanatory variable for spawning in winter to summer. Winds were predominantly important during autumn, whilst sea surface salinity was an important driver during spring and summer. Presentday, “hotspots” for spawning were identified in regions of highly productive, salty waters, where SST was between 6 and 18°C from autumn to spring or 16 and 25°C during summer and favourable winds occurred that would retain eggs and larvae closer to the coast (< 250 km). For future scenarios, forecasts indicate that environmental optima for spawning is projected to be in regions where SST varies between 11°C and 18°C from autumn to spring; and between 18°C and 24°C during summer. However, a negative relationship between phytoplankton productivity and habitat suitability induced by warming is likely to occur in the future. Projections suggest that suitable spawning habitats in all seasons will shift to higher latitudes, with a prominent range expansion along the coast of Norway during winter and autumn (> 83%). The total spawning area, however, was projected to contract in the future during spring (-10.5%) and autumn (-4.1%) due to losses of currently suitable areas along the Atlantic African Coast and Mediterranean Sea. Such regions currently support the greatest sardine stocks but climate-driven warming and decreased plankton productivity are projected to make these areas unsuitable for spawning and likely also for sardine fisheries in future.
- Towards a unified eco-evolutionary framework for fisheries management: Coupling advances in next-generation sequencing with species distribution modellingPublication . Baltazar-Soares, Miguel; Lima, André R.A.; Silva, Gonçalo; Gaget, ElieThe establishment of high-throughput sequencing technologies and subsequent large-scale genomic datasets has flourished across fields of fundamental biological sciences. The introduction of genomic resources in fisheries management has been proposed from multiple angles, ranging from an accurate re-definition of geographical limitations of stocks and connectivity, identification of fine-scale stock structure linked to locally adapted subpopulations, or even the integration with individual-based biophysical models to explore life history strategies. While those clearly enhance our perception of patterns at the light of a spatial scale, temporal depth and consequently forecasting ability might be compromised as an analytical trade-off. Here, we present a framework to reinforce our understanding of stock dynamics by adding also a temporal point of view. We propose to integrate genomic information on temporal projections of species distributions computed by Species Distribution Models (SDMs). SDMs have the potential to project the current and future distribution ranges of a given species from relevant environmental predictors. These projections serve as tools to inform about range expansions and contractions of fish stocks and suggest either suitable locations or local extirpations that may arise in the future. However, SDMs assume that the whole population respond homogenously to the range of environmental conditions. Here, we conceptualize a framework that leverages a conventional Bayesian joint-SDM approach with the incorporation of genomic data. We propose that introducing genomic information at the basis of a joint-SDM will explore the range of suitable habitats where stocks could thrive in the future as a function of their current evolutionary potential.